--- title: "smiling baby case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "smiling baby ($0.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.29% over 602 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby rendered: 2026-11-11T21:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [smiling baby](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · smiling baby A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=all) Price · $0.23 · 0.45 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.29% · 602 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 540 openings · below min 30 days · 602 openings · below min since tracking started · 602 openings · below min -0.5% 97.5% 195.5% **Small sample.** 602 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=24h) | 16 | 2.22% ±0.00 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=7d) | 540 | 97.06% ±97.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby) | 602 | 87.29% ±87.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smiling-baby?window=all) | 602 | 87.29% ±87.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) [TIKTOKDIevas](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TIKTOKDIevas) $0.23 0.45 coins $49.36 98.71 coins 219.4x 2026-11-07 16:48 UTC [FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins $24.98 49.95 coins 111.0x 2026-11-07 21:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 85.24x 2026-11-08 21:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins $14.61 29.21 coins 64.91x 2026-11-07 16:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smiling-baby) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [TIKTOKDIevas](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TIKTOKDIevas) $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.23 0.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $49.36 (219.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.29 on average: an expected loss of $12.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt