---
title: "Smoke case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Smoke ($105.57) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 137.48% over 30 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Smoke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Smoke

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=all)

Price · $105.57 · 211 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $95.01 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 137.48% · 30 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 22 openings · below min

30 days · 30 openings · below min

since tracking started · 30 openings · below min

41.0% 128.0% 215.0%

**Small sample.** 30 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=7d) | 22 | 127.84% ±86.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke) | 30 | 137.48% ±74.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoke?window=all) | 30 | 137.48% ±74.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,935 3,870 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,861 3,722 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $838 1,677 coins | 8.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $834 1,669 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $824 1,648 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $563 1,126 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $542 1,084 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $518 1,035 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $503 1,006 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $378 756 coins | 19.9% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.33× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $170 340 coins | 8.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $122 244 coins | 6.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $45.21 90.41 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) | 65.3% | $2.71 5.41 coins | 1.9% | 18 | 19.6 | 0.92× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $838 1,677 coins 7.94x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $824 1,648 coins 7.80x 2026-11-03 11:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smoke)

[★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $122 244 coins 1.16x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $170 340 coins 1.61x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 12:32 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $106 211 coins $378 756 coins 3.58x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $122 244 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC

[Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) Hidden $106 211 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 11:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $106 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.7% extraordinary 7.0% covert knife 1.0% other 1.0% gold 5.0% Covert 10.0% Consumer Grade 65.3% best hit $838 (7.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt