--- title: "Smoked Loot case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Smoked Loot ($17.27) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 77.53% over 327 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot rendered: 2026-11-11T22:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Smoked Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Smoked Loot A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=all) Price · $17.27 · 34.54 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $15.54 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.53% · 327 openings, odds method Variance · 22.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 81.33% ±63.72 209 openings 30 days · 77.53% ±50.94 327 openings since tracking started · 77.53% ±50.94 327 openings -0.5% 202.0% 404.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=24h) | 6 | 27.56% ±376.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=7d) | 209 | 81.33% ±63.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot) | 327 | 77.53% ±50.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smoked-loot?window=all) | 327 | 77.53% ±50.9 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 327 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 17.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $110 219 coins | 17.6% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $94.29 189 coins | 24.3% | 13 | 13.1 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 11.0% | $19.17 38.33 coins | 13.6% | 45 | 36.0 | 1.25× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 13.0% | $5.23 10.46 coins | 4.4% | 39 | 42.5 | 0.92× | | [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 23.0% | $1.87 3.74 coins | 2.8% | 71 | 75.2 | 0.94× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 23.0% | $1.10 2.19 coins | 1.6% | 82 | 75.2 | 1.09× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 23.0% | $0.10 0.21 coins | 0.2% | 69 | 75.2 | 0.92× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $1,089 2,177 coins 63.04x 2026-11-07 17:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smoked-loot) [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $1.87 3.74 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $5.23 10.46 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P250 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $17.27 34.54 coins $19.17 38.33 coins 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $1.87 3.74 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [P250 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $17.27 34.54 coins $19.17 38.33 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.27 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 2.8% covert 0.3% industrial 38.0% #87c7ff 36.0% Uncommon 23.0% best hit $1,089 (63.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt