---
title: "Smothered case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Smothered ($56.20) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 19 items with odds, observed 158.92% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Smothered](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Smothered

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=all)

Price · $56.20 · 112 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $50.58 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 158.92% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

60.0% 159.0% 258.0%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=7d) | 12 | 158.92% ±98.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered) | 12 | 158.92% ±98.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/smothered?window=all) | 12 | 158.92% ±98.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $393 787 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $393 786 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $370 740 coins | 7.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $367 733 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $363 726 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $340 680 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $336 672 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $254 508 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $244 489 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $235 470 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 10.0% | $74.03 148 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 9.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.56 47.11 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.85 27.7 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.07 14.13 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.11 10.21 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.40 2.8 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.12 2.24 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.64 1.27 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=smothered)

[P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $1.40 2.8 coins 0.02x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $7.07 14.13 coins 0.13x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $254 508 coins 4.52x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $340 680 coins 6.05x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $1.12 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) [kn0x77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kn0x77) $56.20 112 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 0.42x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $5.11 10.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-04 16:05 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $13.85 27.7 coins 0.25x 2026-11-04 16:05 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $1.12 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-04 16:05 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 112 coins $5.11 10.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-04 16:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.20 | 90.00% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 46.0% classified 11.0% mil spec 1.0% sunny 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% other 10.0% violet 10.0% restricted 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt