--- title: "Sniper Nest case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sniper Nest ($6.99) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 6 items with odds, observed 92.67% over 28K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest rendered: 2026-11-11T18:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sniper Nest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sniper Nest A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=all) Price · $6.99 · 13.97 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $6.28 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.67% · 28K openings, odds method Variance · 80.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.30% ±28.64 3,761 openings 7 days · 95.02% ±11.56 23.1K openings 30 days · 92.67% ±10.50 28K openings since tracking started · 92.67% ±10.50 28K openings 56.0% 85.3% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=24h) | 3,761 | 85.30% ±28.6 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=7d) | 23.1K | 95.02% ±11.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest) | 28K | 92.67% ±10.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sniper-nest?window=all) | 28K | 92.67% ±10.5 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $658 1,316 coins | 26.2% | 79 | 70.0 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $657 1,315 coins | 26.2% | 71 | 70.0 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $639 1,278 coins | 25.4% | 67 | 70.0 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $557 1,113 coins | 22.1% | 72 | 70.0 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 9,080 | 9236.7 | 0.98× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 66.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 18,621 | 18473.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 16:29 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 16:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $658 1,316 coins 94.23x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sniper-nest) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [maddyb](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/maddyb) $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 13.97 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.99 | 89.97% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.3% covert 0.5% Classified 0.3% consumer 33.0% industrial 66.0% best hit $658 (94.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt