--- title: "Snipey case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Snipey ($37.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 71.37% over 104 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Snipey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Snipey A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=all) Price · $37.82 · 75.64 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $34.03 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.37% · 104 openings, odds method Variance · 9.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 88 openings · below min 30 days · 71.37% ±59.71 104 openings since tracking started · 71.37% ±59.71 104 openings -0.5% 108.5% 217.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=24h) | 25 | 94.97% ±121.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=7d) | 88 | 77.33% ±64.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey) | 104 | 71.37% ±59.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snipey?window=all) | 104 | 71.37% ±59.7 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $657 1,315 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $438 876 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $367 733 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $261 522 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $202 404 coins | 11.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $98.74 197 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 25.0% | $41.20 82.39 coins | 30.3% | 19 | 26.0 | 0.73× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $33.19 66.38 coins | 9.8% | 5 | 10.4 | 0.48× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 30.0% | $19.95 39.9 coins | 17.6% | 45 | 31.2 | 1.44× | | [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $9.77 19.54 coins | 2.3% | 12 | 8.3 | 1.44× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.20× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=snipey) [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $9.77 19.54 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $41.20 82.39 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $33.19 66.38 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $19.95 39.9 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $19.95 39.9 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $19.95 39.9 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $19.95 39.9 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) Hidden $37.82 75.64 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.82 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 40.6% classified 27.4% restricted 0.5% mil spec 2.0% pink 8.0% milspec 16.0% industrial 5.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt