--- title: "SnowForge case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SnowForge ($190.99) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 61.90% over 112 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [SnowForge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · SnowForge A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=all) Price · $190.99 · 382 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $171.88 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.90% · 112 openings, odds method Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 112 openings · below min since tracking started · 112 openings · below min 9.0% 69.0% 129.0% **Small sample.** 112 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=7d) | 96 | 72.21% ±56.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge) | 112 | 61.90% ±52.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowforge?window=all) | 112 | 61.90% ±52.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $2,539 5,078 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $2,174 4,347 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,853 3,705 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $1,723 3,447 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $1,707 3,413 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,581 3,163 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,551 3,102 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,381 2,761 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,331 2,662 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 104 | 100.8 | 1.03× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $191 382 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 13.84x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 9.57x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,828 3,656 coins 9.57x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,788 3,576 coins 9.36x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,331 2,662 coins 6.97x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,316 2,632 coins 6.89x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 6.56x 2026-11-06 16:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $191 382 coins $1,252 2,504 coins 6.56x 2026-11-04 18:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=snowforge) [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) [BrokeCalls](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BrokeCalls) $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 04:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $191 382 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 13.84x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $191 382 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 22:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $191 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 1.5% covert 5.0% remarkable 1.0% legendary 0.5% other 1.0% Classified 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $2,643 (13.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt