--- title: "Snowman case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Snowman ($27.78) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.23% over 9,123 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Snowman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Snowman A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=all) Price · $27.78 · 55.55 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $24.99 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.23% · 9,123 openings, odds method Variance · 42.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 154 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 742 openings · below min 7 days · 91.72% ±14.23 8,111 openings 30 days · 91.23% ±13.42 9,123 openings since tracking started · 91.23% ±13.42 9,123 openings 36.0% 83.7% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=24h) | 742 | 83.82% ±47.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=7d) | 8,111 | 91.72% ±14.2 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman) | 9,123 | 91.23% ±13.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/snowman?window=all) | 9,123 | 91.23% ±13.4 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,123 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,174 4,347 coins | 8.7% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,125 4,249 coins | 8.5% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,109 4,219 coins | 8.4% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,023 4,047 coins | 8.1% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 17.9% | 33 | 22.8 | 1.45× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $1,534 3,068 coins | 15.3% | 15 | 22.8 | 0.66× | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $293 587 coins | 11.7% | 87 | 91.2 | 0.95× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $279 559 coins | 11.2% | 81 | 91.2 | 0.89× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $123 246 coins | 4.9% | 94 | 91.2 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 235 coins | 4.7% | 89 | 91.2 | 0.98× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $117 234 coins | 0.5% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× | | [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 8,677 | 8666.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-08 18:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [FilthyDaDegen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/FilthyDaDegen) $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-08 00:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-07 22:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-06 10:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-05 18:49 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-05 04:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-04 23:40 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,174 4,347 coins 78.26x 2026-11-04 19:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,125 4,249 coins 76.49x 2026-11-06 23:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $2,125 4,249 coins 76.49x 2026-11-06 22:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=snowman) [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $123 246 coins 4.42x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $27.78 55.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.78 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% legendary 0.4% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 1.0% sunny 1.0% Covert 1.0% covert knife 0.1% milspec 95.0% best hit $2,174 (78.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt