--- title: "Soul Stealer case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Soul Stealer ($12.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.34% over 2,347 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer rendered: 2026-11-12T03:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Soul Stealer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Soul Stealer A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=all) Price · $12.73 · 25.46 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $11.46 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.34% · 2,347 openings, odds method Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.48% ±44.52 167 openings 7 days · 84.24% ±13.93 1,705 openings 30 days · 84.34% ±11.88 2,347 openings since tracking started · 84.34% ±11.88 2,347 openings 24.5% 69.5% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=24h) | 167 | 69.48% ±44.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=7d) | 1,705 | 84.24% ±13.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer) | 2,347 | 84.34% ±11.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/soul-stealer?window=all) | 2,347 | 84.34% ±11.9 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,347 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,263 2,526 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $202 403 coins | 7.0% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $125 251 coins | 5.5% | 13 | 11.7 | 1.11× | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $101 202 coins | 13.2% | 35 | 35.2 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $75.07 150 coins | 13.1% | 39 | 46.9 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $50.58 101 coins | 15.5% | 101 | 82.1 | 1.23× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 19.1% | 91 | 105.6 | 0.86× | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.54 25.08 coins | 10.9% | 207 | 234.7 | 0.88× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $12.04 24.08 coins | 7.9% | 179 | 177.2 | 1.01× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 30.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 1.3% | 719 | 704.1 | 1.02× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 0.9% | 952 | 938.8 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=soul-stealer) [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $48.70 97.39 coins 3.83x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $101 202 coins 7.94x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [kn0x77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kn0x77) $12.73 25.46 coins $12.04 24.08 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $101 202 coins 7.94x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $12.73 25.46 coins $101 202 coins 7.94x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.73 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% covert knife 0.5% restricted 8.0% industrial 10.0% consumer 7.5% #4b69ff 30.0% mil spec 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt