--- title: "Sovereign Drop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sovereign Drop ($2.54) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.61% over 1,963 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop rendered: 2026-11-11T18:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sovereign Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sovereign Drop A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=all) Price · $2.54 · 5.07 coins Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $2.28 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.61% · 1,963 openings, odds method Variance · 23.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.58% ±70.72 180 openings 7 days · 85.08% ±22.91 1,715 openings 30 days · 84.61% ±21.41 1,963 openings since tracking started · 84.61% ±21.41 1,963 openings 1.0% 72.5% 144.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=24h) | 180 | 72.58% ±70.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=7d) | 1,715 | 85.08% ±22.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop) | 1,963 | 84.61% ±21.4 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sovereign-drop?window=all) | 1,963 | 84.61% ±21.4 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,963 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,539 5,078 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.64 21.27 coins | 23.4% | 94 | 98.2 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.25 20.5 coins | 22.5% | 79 | 98.2 | 0.80× | | [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.89 5.77 coins | 19.0% | 298 | 294.4 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.55 5.09 coins | 16.8% | 329 | 294.4 | 1.12× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.81 1.63 coins | 7.2% | 376 | 392.6 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 8.9% | 787 | 785.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sovereign-drop) [Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $10.64 21.27 coins 4.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $10.64 21.27 coins 4.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.81 1.63 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.81 1.63 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) [DavidRice](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DavidRice) $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [MP9 | Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.54 5.07 coins $0.51 1.01 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.54 | 89.82% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% remarkable 0.0% #4b69ff 5.0% classified 5.0% consumer 30.0% mil spec 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt