--- title: "Space Orbit case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Space Orbit ($6.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 83.33% over 1,182 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Space Orbit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Space Orbit A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=all) Price · $6.82 · 13.63 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $6.13 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.33% · 1,182 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 83.73% ±20.66 999 openings 30 days · 83.33% ±19.00 1,182 openings since tracking started · 83.33% ±19.00 1,182 openings -0.5% 78.8% 158.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=24h) | 54 | 68.57% ±88.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=7d) | 999 | 83.73% ±20.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit) | 1,182 | 83.33% ±19.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/space-orbit?window=all) | 1,182 | 83.33% ±19.0 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,182 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,317 2,634 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $165 329 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $161 323 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 400 | $158 316 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $151 302 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.59 123 coins | 10.0% | 18 | 11.8 | 1.52× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $60.91 122 coins | 9.9% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.28 121 coins | 9.8% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $13.47 26.94 coins | 3.3% | 20 | 17.7 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $13.44 26.87 coins | 3.3% | 21 | 17.7 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $12.79 25.57 coins | 3.1% | 13 | 17.7 | 0.73× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $12.52 25.03 coins | 3.1% | 12 | 17.7 | 0.68× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 19.0% | $4.99 9.97 coins | 15.4% | 248 | 224.6 | 1.10× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.17 4.34 coins | 7.1% | 225 | 236.4 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.04 2.08 coins | 4.2% | 299 | 295.5 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 26.0% | $0.62 1.24 coins | 2.6% | 299 | 307.2 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=space-orbit) [P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $2.17 4.34 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) [Apex5887](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Apex5887) $6.82 13.63 coins $12.79 25.57 coins 1.88x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $4.99 9.97 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $2.17 4.34 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $4.99 9.97 coins 0.73x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $0.62 1.24 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.82 | 89.98% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.8% Covert 0.3% classified 1.5% #D32CE6 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% restricted 21.5% Legendary 1.5% mil spec 1.5% pink 19.0% blue 25.0% #8847ff 26.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt