---
title: "Spiny case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spiny ($121.33) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 28 items with odds, observed 0.01% over 16 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Spiny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Spiny

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=all)

Price · $121.33 · 243 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $109.19 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 0.01% · 16 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 16 openings · below min

since tracking started · 16 openings · below min

-0.5% 91.0% 182.5%

**Small sample.** 16 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=7d) | 8 | 0.01% ±181.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny) | 16 | 0.01% ±128.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spiny?window=all) | 16 | 0.01% ±128.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,065 14,130 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,607 3,213 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,552 3,103 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $1,429 2,858 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $1,350 2,701 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,241 2,481 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,063 2,125 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $1,024 2,049 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $977 1,954 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $891 1,782 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $817 1,634 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $771 1,543 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $721 1,442 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $667 1,334 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $605 1,211 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $544 1,088 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $509 1,019 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $470 940 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $266 531 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $253 506 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.88× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 21.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 21.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=spiny)

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $121 243 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $121 243 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 02:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $121 | 90.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.5% covert 9.0% Covert 2.5% epic 0.5% #EB4B4B 0.5% knifes 4.0% Common 20.0% consumer 42.0% industrial 21.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt