--- title: "SPIRIT M4 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SPIRIT M4 ($78.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.81% over 222 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [SPIRIT M4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · SPIRIT M4 A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=all) Price · $78.50 · 157 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.81% · 222 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 162 openings · below min 30 days · 222 openings · below min since tracking started · 222 openings · below min -0.5% 205.8% 412.0% **Small sample.** 222 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=24h) | 64 | 193.25% ±217.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=7d) | 162 | 99.87% ±87.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4) | 222 | 95.81% ±71.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spirit-m4?window=all) | 222 | 95.81% ±71.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $4,761 9,523 coins 60.66x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $2,955 5,910 coins 37.64x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $2,955 5,910 coins 37.64x 2026-11-03 23:56 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $797 1,594 coins 10.15x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) [TMUBB](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TMUBB) $78.50 157 coins $520 1,041 coins 6.63x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=spirit-m4) [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $25.41 50.82 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $1.04 2.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [DOWANNAKNOW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DOWANNAKNOW) $78.50 157 coins $1.58 3.15 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $133 266 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $78.50 157 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,761 (60.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.81 on average: an expected loss of $4.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt