--- title: "Splinter case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Splinter ($183.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.16% over 870 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Splinter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Splinter A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=all) Price · $183.06 · 366 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $164.75 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.16% · 870 openings, odds method Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 45 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 90.45% ±27.90 754 openings 30 days · 85.16% ±25.98 870 openings since tracking started · 85.16% ±25.98 870 openings -0.5% 106.0% 212.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=24h) | 24 | 55.46% ±156.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=7d) | 754 | 90.45% ±27.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter) | 870 | 85.16% ±26.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/splinter?window=all) | 870 | 85.16% ±26.0 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 878 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8,972 17,944 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 9.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× | | [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $5,306 10,611 coins | 6.4% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.28× | | [Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 286 | $4,137 8,274 coins | 8.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 286 | $3,617 7,234 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,295 4,590 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 9.1% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.80× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,151 2,301 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $700 1,401 coins | 8.5% | 26 | 17.6 | 1.48× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $353 706 coins | 6.4% | 28 | 26.3 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $300 600 coins | 5.5% | 18 | 26.3 | 0.68× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $250 500 coins | 4.6% | 21 | 26.3 | 0.80× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $175 350 coins | 3.2% | 31 | 26.3 | 1.18× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2.54 5.08 coins | 0.6% | 340 | 351.2 | 0.97× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 41.8% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 0.3% | 383 | 367.0 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $8,972 17,944 coins 49.01x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $183 366 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 42.35x 2026-11-04 22:01 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $183 366 coins $5,306 10,611 coins 28.98x 2026-11-09 20:28 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $183 366 coins $5,306 10,611 coins 28.98x 2026-11-09 17:18 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $183 366 coins $5,306 10,611 coins 28.98x 2026-11-04 22:37 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $183 366 coins $5,306 10,611 coins 28.98x 2026-11-04 22:05 UTC [Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $183 366 coins $4,137 8,274 coins 22.60x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) [conR](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/conR) $183 366 coins $4,137 8,274 coins 22.60x 2026-11-06 15:38 UTC [Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $183 366 coins $4,137 8,274 coins 22.60x 2026-11-06 15:21 UTC [Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hen1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $183 366 coins $4,137 8,274 coins 22.60x 2026-11-03 19:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=splinter) [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) Hidden $183 366 coins $1,151 2,301 coins 6.29x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $183 366 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) Hidden $183 366 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $183 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.4% covert 13.5% extraordinary 0.4% Covert 1.0% restricted 44.8% #4b69ff 40.0% best hit $8,972 (49.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt