--- title: "Spooked Cock case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spooked Cock ($207.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 71.05% over 430 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock rendered: 2026-11-11T19:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Spooked Cock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Spooked Cock A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=all) Price · $207.89 · 416 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $187.10 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.05% · 430 openings, odds method Variance · 14.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 72.90% ±39.64 342 openings 30 days · 71.05% ±35.35 430 openings since tracking started · 71.05% ±35.35 430 openings -0.5% 84.0% 168.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=24h) | 56 | 70.10% ±98.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=7d) | 342 | 72.90% ±39.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock) | 430 | 71.05% ±35.3 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spooked-cock?window=all) | 430 | 71.05% ±35.3 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 430 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $6,562 13,124 coins | 35.1% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $3,107 6,214 coins | 33.2% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.70× | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $506 1,011 coins | 10.8% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $251 501 coins | 10.7% | 38 | 34.4 | 1.10× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 15.0% | $50.58 101 coins | 4.1% | 59 | 64.5 | 0.91× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $32.01 64.02 coins | 1.7% | 39 | 43.0 | 0.91× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 15.0% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 2.0% | 54 | 64.5 | 0.84× | | [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $15.02 30.03 coins | 1.6% | 78 | 86.0 | 0.91× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.01 20.02 coins | 0.5% | 53 | 43.0 | 1.23× | | [P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.03 10.05 coins | 0.3% | 55 | 43.0 | 1.28× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 29 | 21.5 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $6,562 13,124 coins 31.56x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $6,562 13,124 coins 31.56x 2026-11-09 07:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $6,562 13,124 coins 31.56x 2026-11-04 18:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-09 20:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-09 20:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-08 21:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-07 05:33 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-06 15:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $3,107 6,214 coins 14.94x 2026-11-06 06:58 UTC [★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $506 1,011 coins 2.43x 2026-11-09 20:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=spooked-cock) [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $208 416 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $50.58 101 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $251 501 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $208 416 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) [sperma](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/sperma) $208 416 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $208 416 coins $6,562 13,124 coins 31.56x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) Hidden $208 416 coins $15.02 30.03 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $208 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 18.0% Covert 4.0% restricted 38.0% Rare 15.0% industrial 10.0% Uncommon 10.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit $6,562 (31.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt