--- title: "Spots case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Spots ($2.07) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 9 items with odds, observed 95.66% over 3,066 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots rendered: 2026-11-11T16:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Spots](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Spots A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=all) Price · $2.07 · 4.14 coins Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $1.86 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.66% · 3,066 openings, odds method Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.69% ±51.28 148 openings 7 days · 96.94% ±12.96 2,316 openings 30 days · 95.66% ±11.27 3,066 openings since tracking started · 95.66% ±11.27 3,066 openings 27.0% 78.8% 130.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=24h) | 148 | 78.69% ±51.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=7d) | 2,316 | 96.94% ±13.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots) | 3,066 | 95.66% ±11.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spots?window=all) | 3,066 | 95.66% ±11.3 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,066 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $800 1,600 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $45.68 91.35 coins | 2.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $31.71 63.42 coins | 8.5% | 22 | 15.3 | 1.44× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 11.9% | 42 | 30.7 | 1.37× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 5.4% | 59 | 61.3 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 8 coins | 8.6% | 134 | 122.6 | 1.09× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 9.7% | 174 | 184.0 | 0.95× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 8.6% | 247 | 245.3 | 1.01× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 78.4% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 42.6% | 2,384 | 2403.6 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=spots) [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $2.07 4.14 coins $4.00 8 coins 1.93x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 1.45x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 2.43x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $2.07 4.14 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.07 | 89.82% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 1.1% extraordinary 0.5% mil spec 80.4% Rare 4.0% other 6.0% #777777 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt