---
title: "Spray N Pray case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spray N Pray ($175.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 28.55% over 20 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Spray N Pray](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Spray N Pray

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=all)

Price · $175.61 · 351 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $158.05 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 28.55% · 20 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 20 openings · below min

30 days · 20 openings · below min

since tracking started · 20 openings · below min

-0.5% 64.5% 129.5%

**Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=7d) | 20 | 28.55% ±100.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray) | 20 | 28.55% ±100.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/spray-n-pray?window=all) | 20 | 28.55% ±100.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3,126 6,252 coins | 19.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,433 2,866 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,036 2,071 coins | 19.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $520 1,041 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $201 402 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 12.0% | $85.93 172 coins | 6.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 12.0% | $77.52 155 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 12.0% | $57.72 115 coins | 4.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 12.0% | $39.19 78.38 coins | 3.0% | 6 | 2.4 | 2.50× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [Negev \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $18.92 37.84 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $14.73 29.45 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.14 18.27 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=spray-n-pray)

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.22x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $9.14 18.27 coins 0.05x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $77.52 155 coins 0.44x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.22x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $201 402 coins 1.15x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.22x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $57.72 115 coins 0.33x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[Negev | Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-palm-factory-new) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $176 351 coins $18.92 37.84 coins 0.11x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $176 351 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.22x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $176 351 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $176 | 90.00% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.0% Covert 4.0% Classified 12.0% Industrial Grade 12.0% classified 19.0% industrial 14.0% pink 7.0% milspec 9.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt