--- title: "Stained Titan case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stained Titan ($8.27) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 97.61% over 176 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Stained Titan](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Stained Titan A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=all) Price · $8.27 · 16.53 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $7.44 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.61% · 176 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 36.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 98.06% ±23.95 164 openings 30 days · 97.61% ±23.12 176 openings since tracking started · 97.61% ±23.12 176 openings 15.5% 88.5% 161.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=24h) | 18 | 88.59% ±72.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=7d) | 164 | 98.06% ±23.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan) | 176 | 97.61% ±23.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stained-titan?window=all) | 176 | 97.61% ±23.1 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 176 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $125 251 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $51.39 103 coins | 13.8% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $50.58 101 coins | 13.6% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.70× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 32.0% | $10.23 20.46 coins | 44.0% | 58 | 56.3 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 25.0% | $5.07 10.14 coins | 17.0% | 40 | 44.0 | 0.91× | | [Nova \| Plume (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-plume-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.63 1.25 coins | 1.1% | 27 | 22.9 | 1.18× | | [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 13.0% | $0.60 1.21 coins | 1.1% | 22 | 22.9 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 0.9% | 19 | 22.0 | 0.86× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=stained-titan) [Nova | Plume (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-plume-field-tested) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $0.63 1.25 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $5.07 10.14 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $0.60 1.21 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $10.23 20.46 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $10.23 20.46 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) [qvx](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/qvx) $8.27 16.53 coins $10.23 20.46 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $50.58 101 coins 6.12x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.27 16.53 coins $10.23 20.46 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 18:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.27 | 89.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.5% Industrial Grade 32.0% Mil Spec 25.0% mil spec 13.0% #4b69ff 13.0% Rare 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt