--- title: "Stainy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stainy ($24.09) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 105.08% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Stainy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Stainy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=all) Price · $24.09 · 48.18 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.68 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.08% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 42 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min 71.5% 125.3% 179.0% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 12.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=7d) | 42 | 134.67% ±43.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy) | 74 | 105.08% ±32.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stainy?window=all) | 74 | 105.08% ±32.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $760 1,520 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $612 1,223 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $379 759 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $229 457 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $76.52 153 coins | 29.3% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $59.52 119 coins | 22.8% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $55.91 112 coins | 21.4% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.30× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 8.8% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.87 21.74 coins | 4.2% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.63× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.25 20.5 coins | 3.9% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.30× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $4.88 9.76 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.72 5.44 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.39 4.77 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× | | [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.56 3.12 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.81 1.61 coins | 0.3% | 11 | 6.1 | 1.79× | | [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.79 1.57 coins | 0.3% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=stainy) [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $76.52 153 coins 3.18x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $2.72 5.44 coins 0.11x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $76.52 153 coins 3.18x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $24.09 48.18 coins $10.25 20.5 coins 0.43x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $59.52 119 coins 2.47x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-factory-new) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $10.87 21.74 coins 0.45x 2026-11-10 08:14 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $55.91 112 coins 2.32x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $59.52 119 coins 2.47x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $59.52 119 coins 2.47x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $24.09 48.18 coins $379 759 coins 15.74x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.09 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 8.3% covert 8.3% other 0.1% covert knife 0.1% Ancient 8.3% #d32ee6 16.6% classified 16.6% mil spec 8.3% Legendary 8.3% restricted 25.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt