--- title: "Steel Lock case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Steel Lock ($47.70) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 82.10% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock rendered: 2026-11-12T03:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Steel Lock](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Steel Lock A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=all) Price · $47.70 · 95.39 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $42.92 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.10% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 101.0% 202.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock) | 8 | 82.10% ±119.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/steel-lock?window=all) | 8 | 82.10% ±119.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $568 1,136 coins | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $290 579 coins | 13.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $178 355 coins | 10.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $148 295 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $137 274 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $125 251 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $108 216 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $107 214 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $76.74 153 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $66.94 134 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $58.47 117 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.28 2.56 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.20 0.39 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 37.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=steel-lock) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.70 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 1.0% covert 21.5% covert knife 6.0% Industrial 4.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 57.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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