--- title: "Stick case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stick ($21.88) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 116.91% over 240 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick rendered: 2026-11-11T16:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Stick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Stick A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=all) Price · $21.88 · 43.75 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.69 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.91% · 240 openings, odds method Variance · 18.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 58.57% ±71.23 140 openings 30 days · 116.91% ±54.40 240 openings since tracking started · 116.91% ±54.40 240 openings -0.5% 207.8% 416.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=24h) | 5 | 38.28% ±376.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=7d) | 140 | 58.57% ±71.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick) | 240 | 116.91% ±54.4 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stick?window=all) | 240 | 116.91% ±54.4 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,919 5,838 coins | 7.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,656 5,311 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $249 497 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $246 493 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 20.0% | $23.11 46.22 coins | 23.5% | 42 | 48.0 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 20.0% | $22.82 45.63 coins | 23.2% | 59 | 48.0 | 1.23× | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 28.5% | $4.79 9.57 coins | 6.9% | 65 | 68.4 | 0.95× | | [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 29.4% | $4.76 9.51 coins | 7.1% | 72 | 70.6 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $2,919 5,838 coins 133.4x 2026-11-04 00:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=stick) [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.76 9.51 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $21.88 43.75 coins $4.79 9.57 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.76 9.51 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.76 9.51 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $21.88 43.75 coins $22.82 45.63 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.79 9.57 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $22.82 45.63 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.76 9.51 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $23.11 46.22 coins 1.06x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) Hidden $21.88 43.75 coins $4.79 9.57 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.88 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.1% legendary 0.1% covert 21.0% covert knife 1.0% Ancient 20.0% restricted 28.5% Uncommon 29.4% best hit $2,919 (133.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt