--- title: "Sticky's House case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sticky's House ($50.61) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 82.87% over 1,214 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sticky's House](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sticky's House A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=all) Price · $50.61 · 101 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $45.54 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.87% · 1,214 openings, odds method Variance · 25.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 53.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 46.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.57% ±62.38 256 openings 7 days · 81.07% ±37.51 708 openings 30 days · 82.87% ±28.65 1,214 openings since tracking started · 82.87% ±28.65 1,214 openings 25.5% 88.5% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=24h) | 256 | 88.57% ±62.4 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=7d) | 708 | 81.07% ±37.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house) | 1,214 | 82.87% ±28.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stickys-house?window=all) | 1,214 | 82.87% ±28.6 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,214 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $501 1,002 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $494 987 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $112 224 coins | 12.3% | 58 | 60.7 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 48.0% | $68.02 136 coins | 71.7% | 606 | 582.7 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 46.3% | $0.36 0.73 coins | 0.4% | 545 | 562.6 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 19.81x 2026-11-02 22:59 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $501 1,002 coins 9.90x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=stickys-house) [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $68.02 136 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $68.02 136 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $50.61 101 coins $68.02 136 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.61 101 coins $0.36 0.73 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [eliboti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eliboti) $50.61 101 coins $112 224 coins 2.22x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.61 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% Covert 0.2% Classified 48.0% restricted 46.3% best hit $1,002 (19.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt