--- title: "Stiletto case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stiletto ($103.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 98.72% over 353 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Stiletto](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Stiletto A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=all) Price · $103.28 · 207 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $92.95 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.72% · 353 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 34 openings · below min 7 days · 95.80% ±31.10 331 openings 30 days · 98.72% ±30.12 353 openings since tracking started · 98.72% ±30.12 353 openings -0.5% 75.8% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=24h) | 34 | 54.55% ±97.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=7d) | 331 | 95.80% ±31.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto) | 353 | 98.72% ±30.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/stiletto?window=all) | 353 | 98.72% ±30.1 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 353 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $2,469 4,937 coins | 13.3% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $2,468 4,935 coins | 13.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,834 3,667 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,221 2,442 coins | 6.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $614 1,229 coins | 6.6% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.42× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $442 884 coins | 4.8% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $360 720 coins | 7.7% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $329 659 coins | 7.1% | 13 | 7.1 | 1.84× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $131 261 coins | 2.8% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $128 255 coins | 2.7% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $111 223 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $110 221 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 15.0% | $59.39 119 coins | 9.6% | 61 | 52.9 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 21.0% | $26.78 53.55 coins | 6.0% | 74 | 74.1 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 24.0% | $13.59 27.18 coins | 3.5% | 78 | 84.7 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 24.0% | $5.21 10.42 coins | 1.3% | 83 | 84.7 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $103 207 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 23.90x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $103 207 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 23.90x 2026-11-06 15:07 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $103 207 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 23.90x 2026-11-04 17:03 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $103 207 coins $2,468 4,935 coins 23.89x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $103 207 coins $2,468 4,935 coins 23.89x 2026-11-05 03:42 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $1,221 2,442 coins 11.82x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $1,221 2,442 coins 11.82x 2026-11-09 20:36 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $1,221 2,442 coins 11.82x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $614 1,229 coins 5.95x 2026-11-09 20:36 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $614 1,229 coins 5.95x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=stiletto) [Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $59.39 119 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 207 coins $360 720 coins 3.49x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $103 207 coins $59.39 119 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $26.78 53.55 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $59.39 119 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $103 207 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $5.21 10.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $103 207 coins $329 659 coins 3.19x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $103 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.5% legendary 0.5% gold 2.0% covert knife 6.0% restricted 15.0% Mythical 21.0% classified 24.0% Legendary 24.0% best hit $2,469 (23.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt