--- title: "Sugar Rush case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sugar Rush ($32.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 73.72% over 40 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sugar Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sugar Rush A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=all) Price · $32.52 · 65.04 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $29.27 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.72% · 40 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min -0.5% 132.3% 265.0% **Small sample.** 40 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=7d) | 4 | 97.73% ±166.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush) | 40 | 73.72% ±52.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sugar-rush?window=all) | 40 | 73.72% ±52.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $424 849 coins | 14.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $181 362 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $153 307 coins | 10.5% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $118 236 coins | 8.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $93.07 186 coins | 6.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.39 113 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 22.0% | $45.68 91.35 coins | 34.3% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.14× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $34.03 68.06 coins | 14.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× | | [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 55.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 24 | 22.0 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sugar-rush) [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $32.52 65.04 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $32.52 65.04 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $32.52 65.04 coins $93.07 186 coins 2.86x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $32.52 65.04 coins $34.03 68.06 coins 1.05x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.52 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% mil spec 1.0% classified 36.0% industrial 2.0% Industrial Grade 3.0% consumer 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt