--- title: "Sunburn case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sunburn ($0.10) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 70.26% over 21.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Sunburn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Sunburn A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=all) Price · $0.10 · 0.19 coins Advertised RTP · 85.99% · EV $0.08 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.26% · 21.1K openings, odds method Variance · 329.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2,494 openings · below min 7 days · 65.56% ±27.04 17.3K openings 30 days · 70.26% ±24.48 21.1K openings since tracking started · 70.26% ±24.48 21.1K openings -0.5% 62.8% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=24h) | 2,494 | 54.25% ±71.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=7d) | 17.3K | 65.56% ±27.0 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn) | 21.1K | 70.26% ±24.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/sunburn?window=all) | 21.1K | 70.26% ±24.5 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $64.92 130 coins | 39.7% | 6 | 10.6 | 0.57× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.71 63.42 coins | 19.4% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $20.37 40.73 coins | 12.5% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $12.62 25.24 coins | 7.7% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9.03 18.06 coins | 11.1% | 19 | 21.2 | 0.90× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.09 4.18 coins | 2.6% | 21 | 21.2 | 0.99× | | [Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-lionfish-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $0.79 1.58 coins | 1.0% | 18 | 21.2 | 0.85× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 6.1% | 21,056 | 21045.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=sunburn) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Teeboy77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Teeboy77) $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.10 | 85.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% industrial 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% Mythical 0.1% restricted 0.1% #4b69ff 99.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.99 on average: an expected loss of $14.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt