--- title: "Supreme Knives case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Supreme Knives ($40.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 105.38% over 696 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives rendered: 2026-11-11T19:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Supreme Knives](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Supreme Knives A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=all) Price · $40.30 · 80.6 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36.27 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.38% · 696 openings, odds method Variance · 35.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60.47% ±84.45 190 openings 7 days · 113.35% ±48.42 578 openings 30 days · 105.38% ±44.12 696 openings since tracking started · 105.38% ±44.12 696 openings -0.5% 81.0% 162.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=24h) | 190 | 60.47% ±84.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=7d) | 578 | 113.35% ±48.4 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives) | 696 | 105.38% ±44.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/supreme-knives?window=all) | 696 | 105.38% ±44.1 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 696 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 6,667 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 6,667 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 6,667 | $8,347 16,693 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $6,321 12,641 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,449 2,899 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,293 2,585 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $266 531 coins | 7.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $150 300 coins | 20.7% | 34 | 34.8 | 0.98× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $74.62 149 coins | 16.5% | 48 | 55.7 | 0.86× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $73.42 147 coins | 16.2% | 64 | 55.7 | 1.15× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $73.15 146 coins | 16.1% | 52 | 55.7 | 0.93× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 69.7% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 487 | 485.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $6,321 12,641 coins 156.8x 2026-11-08 15:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 35.96x 2026-11-10 16:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $40.30 80.6 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 35.96x 2026-11-06 05:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $40.30 80.6 coins $1,449 2,899 coins 35.96x 2026-11-06 05:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $1,293 2,585 coins 32.07x 2026-11-06 00:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=supreme-knives) [★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $73.42 147 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $74.62 149 coins 1.85x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins $73.15 146 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $40.30 80.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.30 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.3% gold 5.0% Immortal 8.0% #ffd700 8.0% #4b69ff 69.7% best hit $6,321 (156.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt