--- title: "Surfer case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Surfer ($13.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 16 items with odds, observed 98.56% over 2,177 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Surfer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Surfer A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=all) Price · $13.41 · 26.81 coins Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $12.07 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.56% · 2,177 openings, odds method Variance · 23.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.39% ±46.13 416 openings 7 days · 91.07% ±20.69 2,067 openings 30 days · 98.56% ±20.16 2,177 openings since tracking started · 98.56% ±20.16 2,177 openings 22.5% 71.0% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=24h) | 416 | 69.39% ±46.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=7d) | 2,067 | 91.07% ±20.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer) | 2,177 | 98.56% ±20.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/surfer?window=all) | 2,177 | 98.56% ±20.2 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,177 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 12,500 | $2,877 5,754 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,415 4,830 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,545 | $1,701 3,402 coins | 3.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,071 2,142 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,222 | $816 1,631 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $772 1,544 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,502 | $618 1,237 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $451 903 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $333 666 coins | 6.9% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $227 453 coins | 9.4% | 7 | 10.9 | 0.64× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $161 323 coins | 12.0% | 26 | 19.6 | 1.33× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $89.53 179 coins | 11.1% | 25 | 32.7 | 0.77× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.39 113 coins | 14.0% | 69 | 65.3 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $12.09 24.18 coins | 5.0% | 101 | 108.9 | 0.93× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 5.5% | 252 | 261.2 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 76.5% | $2.04 4.07 coins | 12.9% | 1,683 | 1665.8 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2,415 4,830 coins 180.1x 2026-11-10 12:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $1,701 3,402 coins 126.9x 2026-11-03 23:17 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $1,071 2,142 coins 79.89x 2026-11-09 20:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $816 1,631 coins 60.85x 2026-11-10 00:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $816 1,631 coins 60.85x 2026-11-06 19:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $816 1,631 coins 60.85x 2026-11-04 18:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $618 1,237 coins 46.13x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=surfer) [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) [fortune](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fortune) $13.41 26.81 coins $161 323 coins 12.03x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $13.41 26.81 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.41 | 90.01% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% covert 5.4% epic 0.0% covert knife 2.1% classified 12.9% consumer 3.0% restricted 76.5% best hit $2,415 (180.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt