--- title: "Synth case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Synth ($3.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.87% from 10 items with odds, observed 84.12% over 2,311 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Synth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Synth A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=all) Price · $3.13 · 6.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.87% · EV $2.81 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.12% · 2,311 openings, odds method Variance · 20.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.62% ±41.73 460 openings 7 days · 90.62% ±22.41 1,596 openings 30 days · 84.12% ±18.62 2,311 openings since tracking started · 84.12% ±18.62 2,311 openings 64.0% 106.5% 149.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=24h) | 460 | 106.62% ±41.7 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=7d) | 1,596 | 90.62% ±22.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth) | 2,311 | 84.12% ±18.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/synth?window=all) | 2,311 | 84.12% ±18.6 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,311 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $660 1,320 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $635 1,269 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $603 1,206 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $556 1,113 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $44.27 88.53 coins | 31.5% | 50 | 46.2 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.99 37.97 coins | 33.8% | 114 | 115.6 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.56 11.12 coins | 11.9% | 141 | 138.7 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.98 7.95 coins | 8.5% | 147 | 138.7 | 1.06× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 5.4% | 126 | 138.7 | 0.91× | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 75.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 1,733 | 1732.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=synth) [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $3.13 6.25 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [AWP | POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins $3.98 7.95 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC [Galil AR | Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) Hidden $3.13 6.25 coins $5.56 11.12 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.13 | 89.87% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% Legendary 2.0% industrial 5.0% Rare 6.0% Restricted 6.0% consumer 6.0% blue 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.87 on average: an expected loss of $10.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt