--- title: "System case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "System ($127.76) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 31.52% over 10 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [System](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · System A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=all) Price · $127.76 · 256 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $114.98 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.52% · 10 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 10 openings · below min since tracking started · 10 openings · below min -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% **Small sample.** 10 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=7d) | 10 | 31.52% ±107.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system) | 10 | 31.52% ±107.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/system?window=all) | 10 | 31.52% ±107.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,006 2,012 coins | 17.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $901 1,803 coins | 15.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $379 757 coins | 16.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $377 753 coins | 16.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $376 752 coins | 16.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $252 504 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 22.0% | $12.07 24.13 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 52.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=system) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $128 256 coins $12.07 24.13 coins 0.09x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $128 256 coins $379 757 coins 2.96x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $128 256 coins $12.07 24.13 coins 0.09x 2026-11-04 20:16 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 20:16 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 20:16 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [kn0x77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kn0x77) $128 256 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-04 20:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $128 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 36.0% Restricted 5.0% Covert 7.0% #4b69ff 52.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt