--- title: "tadpole case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "tadpole ($0.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 96.83% over 306 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole rendered: 2026-11-11T15:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [tadpole](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · tadpole A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=all) Price · $0.47 · 0.93 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 96.83% · 306 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 276 openings · below min 30 days · 306 openings · below min since tracking started · 306 openings · below min 1.5% 98.3% 195.0% **Small sample.** 306 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=24h) | 80 | 35.55% ±21.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=7d) | 276 | 98.27% ±96.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole) | 306 | 96.83% ±86.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tadpole?window=all) | 306 | 96.83% ±86.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $62.13 124 coins 133.6x 2026-11-08 12:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tadpole) [Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $2.44 4.87 coins 5.24x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $2.12 4.24 coins 4.56x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-field-tested) Hidden $0.47 0.93 coins $0.04 0.09 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $62.13 (133.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 96.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $96.83 on average: an expected loss of $3.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt