---
title: "Tainted Dragon case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tainted Dragon ($45.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 218.48% over 58 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tainted Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tainted Dragon

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=all)

Price · $45.83 · 91.66 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $41.25 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 218.48% · 58 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 42 openings · below min

30 days · 58 openings · below min

since tracking started · 58 openings · below min

89.5% 190.3% 291.0%

**Small sample.** 58 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=7d) | 42 | 190.49% ±84.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon) | 58 | 218.48% ±71.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tainted-dragon?window=all) | 58 | 218.48% ±71.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $871 1,742 coins | 21.1% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $696 1,391 coins | 16.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $466 933 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $380 759 coins | 9.2% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $348 696 coins | 8.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $206 413 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $75.09 150 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $72.33 145 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $40.72 81.43 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.26 46.51 coins | 2.8% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 10.0% | $19.18 38.36 coins | 4.7% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 12.0% | $12.06 24.12 coins | 3.5% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 15.0% | $8.39 16.78 coins | 3.1% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.71 13.42 coins | 2.4% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.47 10.93 coins | 2.0% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 1.1% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $871 1,742 coins 19.01x 2026-11-05 23:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) [Tx415151](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tx415151) $45.83 91.66 coins $871 1,742 coins 19.01x 2026-11-05 23:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $871 1,742 coins 19.01x 2026-11-03 11:14 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $696 1,391 coins 15.18x 2026-11-05 23:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tainted-dragon)

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 0.42x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $12.06 24.12 coins 0.26x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $8.39 16.78 coins 0.18x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $348 696 coins 7.59x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $40.72 81.43 coins 0.89x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 0.42x 2026-11-07 03:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 0.42x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $23.26 46.51 coins 0.51x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 0.07x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $45.83 91.66 coins $5.47 10.93 coins 0.12x 2026-11-06 00:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.83 | 90.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% red 1.0% restricted 9.0% mil spec 41.0% gold 5.0% industrial 27.0% blue 15.0% best hit $871 (19.01x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt