--- title: "Tempest case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tempest ($0.65) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 12 items with odds, observed 94.98% over 2,320 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tempest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tempest A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=all) Price · $0.65 · 1.29 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $0.58 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.98% · 2,320 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76.13% ±16.80 610 openings 7 days · 93.20% ±9.49 1,910 openings 30 days · 94.98% ±8.61 2,320 openings since tracking started · 94.98% ±8.61 2,320 openings 58.5% 81.3% 104.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=24h) | 610 | 76.13% ±16.8 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=7d) | 1,910 | 93.20% ±9.49 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest) | 2,320 | 94.98% ±8.61 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tempest?window=all) | 2,320 | 94.98% ±8.61 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,386 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9.83 19.66 coins | 16.9% | 23 | 23.9 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.59 9.17 coins | 23.7% | 80 | 71.6 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.79 5.57 coins | 14.4% | 82 | 71.6 | 1.15× | | [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.46 4.92 coins | 12.7% | 76 | 71.6 | 1.06× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.93 3.85 coins | 10.0% | 76 | 71.6 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.03 2.05 coins | 5.3% | 60 | 71.6 | 0.84× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 5.2% | 81 | 71.6 | 1.13× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.55 1.09 coins | 2.8% | 77 | 71.6 | 1.08× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.18 0.36 coins | 4.7% | 350 | 357.9 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 3.4% | 371 | 381.8 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.6% | 392 | 405.6 | 0.97× | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 718 | 715.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tempest) [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $4.59 9.17 coins 7.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $1.03 2.05 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.65 1.29 coins $2.46 4.92 coins 3.81x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $0.65 1.29 coins $0.18 0.36 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.65 | 89.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 17.0% blue 31.0% restricted 9.0% mil spec 27.0% #8847ff 16.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt