--- title: "The Sizzler case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Sizzler ($58.39) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.23% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler rendered: 2026-11-11T18:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [The Sizzler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · The Sizzler A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=all) Price · $58.39 · 117 coins Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $51.97 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.23% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 0.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 60.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min 81.0% 89.3% 97.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=7d) | 32 | 89.23% ±7.69 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler) | 32 | 89.23% ±7.69 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/the-sizzler?window=all) | 32 | 89.23% ±7.69 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,543 3,086 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $873 1,745 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $64.92 130 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $60.88 122 coins | 17.6% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 40.0% | $58.12 116 coins | 44.7% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $54.12 108 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 10.0% | $49.36 98.71 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 25.0% | $34.57 69.13 coins | 16.6% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=the-sizzler) [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $64.92 130 coins 1.11x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $49.36 98.71 coins 0.85x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) [Merleben](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Merleben) $58.39 117 coins $58.12 116 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $60.88 122 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $34.57 69.13 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $58.12 116 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $58.12 116 coins 1.00x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $58.39 117 coins $60.88 122 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 10:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.39 | 89.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 5.0% restricted 20.0% mil spec 40.0% covert 10.0% Ancient 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt