---
title: "Tidebreaker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tidebreaker ($161.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.87% over 24 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tidebreaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tidebreaker

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=all)

Price · $161.06 · 322 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $143.34 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.87% · 24 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 24 openings · below min

30 days · 24 openings · below min

since tracking started · 24 openings · below min

1.5% 77.3% 153.0%

**Small sample.** 24 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=24h) | 8 | 77.04% ±75.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=7d) | 24 | 73.87% ±43.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker) | 24 | 73.87% ±43.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tidebreaker?window=all) | 24 | 73.87% ±43.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $835 1,669 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $702 1,404 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $528 1,057 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $452 903 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $435 870 coins | 9.1% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $405 809 coins | 8.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $201 402 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 20 | $186 371 coins | 6.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $175 350 coins | 6.1% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.33× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $166 333 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $166 331 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $152 304 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $137 274 coins | 4.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 24.0% | $61.31 123 coins | 10.3% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 27.5% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 0.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tidebreaker)

[P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $161 322 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) Hidden $161 322 coins $435 870 coins 2.70x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $161 322 coins $61.31 123 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $161 322 coins $61.31 123 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $161 322 coins $61.31 123 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $161 322 coins $137 274 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $161 322 coins $61.31 123 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $161 322 coins $175 350 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $161 322 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

[P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) Hidden $161 322 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $161 | 89.00% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 27.5% covert knife 1.0% extraordinary 11.0% legendary 3.0% pink 5.0% restricted 10.0% classified 5.0% milspec 5.0% Restricted 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 27.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt