--- title: "Tiger case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tiger ($12.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.40% over 4,180 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tiger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tiger A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=all) Price · $12.63 · 25.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $11.36 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.40% · 4,180 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.50% ±31.88 360 openings 7 days · 90.06% ±9.77 3,835 openings 30 days · 92.40% ±9.35 4,180 openings since tracking started · 92.40% ±9.35 4,180 openings 51.0% 83.5% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=24h) | 360 | 83.50% ±31.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=7d) | 3,835 | 90.06% ±9.77 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger) | 4,180 | 92.40% ±9.35 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tiger?window=all) | 4,180 | 92.40% ±9.35 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,180 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $338 676 coins | 29.7% | 41 | 41.8 | 0.98× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $195 390 coins | 17.2% | 50 | 41.8 | 1.20× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $71.01 142 coins | 6.2% | 43 | 41.8 | 1.03× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.98 57.96 coins | 12.8% | 219 | 209.0 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.39 30.77 coins | 13.5% | 383 | 418.0 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $4.62 9.24 coins | 12.2% | 1,255 | 1254.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 28.0% | $2.97 5.94 coins | 7.3% | 1,209 | 1170.4 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 24.0% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 1.0% | 980 | 1003.2 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tiger) [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $2.97 5.94 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $15.39 30.77 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $4.62 9.24 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $12.63 25.25 coins $4.62 9.24 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $2.97 5.94 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $15.39 30.77 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $2.97 5.94 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $4.62 9.24 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $2.97 5.94 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC [SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) Hidden $12.63 25.25 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.63 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 1.0% industrial 29.0% classified 5.0% #4b69ff 10.0% mil spec 30.0% #8847ff 24.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt