--- title: "Tin Can Shaker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tin Can Shaker ($0.19) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.42% from 9 items with odds, observed 87.33% over 14.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tin Can Shaker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tin Can Shaker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=all) Price · $0.19 · 0.37 coins Advertised RTP · 89.42% · EV $0.17 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.33% · 14.4K openings, odds method Variance · 48.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 143 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 116.61% ±34.50 1,558 openings 7 days · 86.59% ±13.20 10.6K openings 30 days · 87.33% ±11.34 14.4K openings since tracking started · 87.33% ±11.34 14.4K openings 72.5% 112.3% 152.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=24h) | 1,558 | 116.61% ±34.5 | +1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=7d) | 10.6K | 86.59% ±13.2 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker) | 14.4K | 87.33% ±11.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tin-can-shaker?window=all) | 14.4K | 87.33% ±11.3 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 20.9% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $21.41 42.82 coins | 19.4% | 18 | 21.7 | 0.83× | | [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $4.83 9.65 coins | 11.7% | 57 | 57.7 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $3.67 7.34 coins | 8.9% | 55 | 57.7 | 0.95× | | [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $3.27 6.53 coins | 7.9% | 78 | 57.7 | 1.35× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 24.0% | $0.17 0.33 coins | 23.9% | 3,522 | 3464.2 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) | 24.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 5.1% | 3,390 | 3464.2 | 0.98× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) | 24.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.5% | 3,467 | 3464.2 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 26.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.8% | 3,827 | 3825.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-10 06:12 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-08 14:36 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-08 12:52 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-08 11:18 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Bambam19](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Bambam19) $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-08 08:41 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $23.04 46.07 coins 124.5x 2026-11-08 04:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tin-can-shaker) [PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.18 0.37 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [PP-Bizon | Facility Sketch (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $0.18 0.37 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.18 | 89.42% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 0.1% classified 0.1% restricted 0.8% Consumer Grade 0.4% industrial 50.5% consumer 24.0% milspec 24.0% best hit $23.04 (124.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.42 on average: an expected loss of $10.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt