---
title: "Toothless case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Toothless ($20.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.63% over 237 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Toothless](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Toothless

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=all)

Price · $20.60 · 41.2 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.54 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.63% · 237 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 94.25% ±51.58 189 openings

30 days · 88.63% ±46.06 237 openings

since tracking started · 88.63% ±46.06 237 openings

-0.5% 268.0% 536.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=24h) | 2 | 34.39% ±501.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=7d) | 189 | 94.25% ±51.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless) | 237 | 88.63% ±46.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/toothless?window=all) | 237 | 88.63% ±46.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 25.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $24.16 48.32 coins | 6.5% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 6.2% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $22.37 44.74 coins | 7.2% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $19.52 39.04 coins | 6.3% | 18 | 14.2 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $18.06 36.11 coins | 5.8% | 12 | 14.2 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $17.07 34.14 coins | 5.5% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $17.02 34.04 coins | 5.5% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $13.42 26.84 coins | 4.3% | 15 | 14.2 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.06 24.12 coins | 3.9% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.22 22.44 coins | 3.6% | 15 | 14.2 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $10.36 20.72 coins | 3.4% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $10.11 20.21 coins | 3.3% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $9.84 19.67 coins | 3.2% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $9.53 19.05 coins | 3.1% | 21 | 14.2 | 1.48× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.39 14.77 coins | 2.4% | 12 | 14.2 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.79 13.57 coins | 2.2% | 23 | 14.2 | 1.62× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $6.07 12.13 coins | 1.8% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $1,191 2,383 coins 57.83x 2026-11-05 10:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=toothless)

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $6.79 13.57 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $20.60 41.2 coins $7.39 14.77 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $6.07 12.13 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $12.06 24.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $17.07 34.14 coins 0.83x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $18.06 36.11 coins 0.88x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $6.79 13.57 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $20.60 41.2 coins $10.11 20.21 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $22.37 44.74 coins 1.09x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $20.60 41.2 coins $9.84 19.67 coins 0.48x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.60 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 5.6% covert 11.4% mil spec 23.0% classified 18.0% industrial 24.0% restricted 6.0% blue 6.0% red 6.0% best hit $1,191 (57.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt