--- title: "Town Salem case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Town Salem ($45.92) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 48.96% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem rendered: 2026-11-11T19:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Town Salem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Town Salem A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=all) Price · $45.92 · 91.83 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $41.32 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 48.96% · 26 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min -0.5% 70.3% 141.0% **Small sample.** 26 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=7d) | 26 | 48.96% ±91.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem) | 26 | 48.96% ±91.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/town-salem?window=all) | 26 | 48.96% ±91.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,915 7,830 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $516 1,032 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $501 1,002 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $270 541 coins | 13.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $253 506 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $250 500 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $45.11 90.22 coins | 8.7% | 6 | 2.1 | 2.88× | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 13 | $40.70 81.4 coins | 7.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $39.54 79.08 coins | 7.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $39.38 78.75 coins | 7.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.51 11.01 coins | 1.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) | 11.0% | $4.46 8.91 coins | 1.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 11.0% | $3.78 7.56 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) | 11.0% | $1.57 3.13 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 17.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=town-salem) [SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $39.54 79.08 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $45.11 90.22 coins 0.98x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $1.57 3.13 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $4.46 8.91 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $39.54 79.08 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $45.92 91.83 coins $39.38 78.75 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC [MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $4.46 8.91 coins 0.10x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $39.38 78.75 coins 0.86x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC [Charm | Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) Hidden $45.92 91.83 coins $40.70 81.4 coins 0.89x 2026-11-07 21:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.92 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% covert 31.0% Covert 1.0% covert knife 2.0% Ancient 8.0% gray 8.0% #8847ff 11.0% Industrial 11.0% violet 11.0% consumer 17.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt