--- title: "Trace case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Trace ($8.94) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 16 items with odds, observed 100.63% over 224 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Trace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Trace A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=all) Price · $8.94 · 17.88 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $8.04 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.63% · 224 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50 openings · below min 7 days · 90.83% ±29.68 170 openings 30 days · 100.63% ±25.85 224 openings since tracking started · 100.63% ±25.85 224 openings 60.5% 120.8% 181.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=24h) | 50 | 125.73% ±54.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=7d) | 170 | 90.83% ±29.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace) | 224 | 100.63% ±25.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trace?window=all) | 224 | 100.63% ±25.9 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 230 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,510 3,021 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $809 1,619 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $503 1,007 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $62.54 125 coins | 7.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $62.13 124 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $62.08 124 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $61.60 123 coins | 7.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.88 122 coins | 7.6% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.74× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $60.28 121 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $35.95 71.89 coins | 13.4% | 10 | 6.9 | 1.45× | | [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $15.86 31.71 coins | 9.9% | 14 | 11.5 | 1.22× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.08 28.16 coins | 8.8% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 7.5% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.64 23.28 coins | 7.2% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.06 20.12 coins | 6.3% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 66.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 146 | 151.8 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=trace) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins $62.13 124 coins 6.95x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins $60.88 122 coins 6.81x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins $15.86 31.71 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins $10.06 20.12 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [chakhna](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chakhna) $8.94 17.88 coins $10.06 20.12 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $8.94 17.88 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.94 | 89.96% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% classified 5.0% rare 0.0% gold 1.0% restricted 1.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% red 5.0% mil spec 5.0% #4b69ff 66.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt