--- title: "Train case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Train ($3.02) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.07% over 10K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Train A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=all) Price · $3.02 · 6.03 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $2.71 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.07% · 10K openings, odds method Variance · 271.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 556 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 454 openings · below min 7 days · 90.47% ±34.22 8,916 openings 30 days · 87.07% ±32.24 10K openings since tracking started · 87.07% ±32.24 10K openings -0.5% 97.5% 195.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=24h) | 454 | 43.42% ±151.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=7d) | 8,916 | 90.47% ±34.2 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train) | 10K | 87.07% ±32.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/train?window=all) | 10K | 87.07% ±32.2 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $3,086 6,171 coins | 17.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 23.2% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $758 1,515 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $161 323 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $115 230 coins | 3.2% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $66.81 134 coins | 24.6% | 81 | 100.5 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $46.41 92.81 coins | 22.8% | 137 | 133.6 | 1.03× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 97.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 9,811 | 9794.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $3,086 6,171 coins 1,023x 2026-11-09 08:52 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $3,086 6,171 coins 1,023x 2026-11-08 01:25 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 417.4x 2026-11-08 21:17 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 417.4x 2026-11-07 22:17 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 417.4x 2026-11-07 20:54 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [kinypulse](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kinypulse) $3.02 6.03 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 417.4x 2026-11-07 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $758 1,515 coins 251.3x 2026-11-09 16:27 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $758 1,515 coins 251.3x 2026-11-08 22:56 UTC [M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $758 1,515 coins 251.3x 2026-11-07 09:56 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $161 323 coins 53.49x 2026-11-05 15:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=train) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins $46.41 92.81 coins 15.39x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 6.03 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.02 | 89.94% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 0.1% covert knife 1.0% industrial 1.3% Consumer Grade 97.5% best hit $3,086 (1,023x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt