--- title: "Tranquil case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tranquil ($9.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 94.12% over 168 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tranquil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tranquil A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=all) Price · $9.59 · 19.17 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $8.62 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.12% · 168 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 96.26% ±17.45 160 openings 30 days · 94.12% ±17.03 168 openings since tracking started · 94.12% ±17.03 168 openings 58.0% 92.8% 127.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=24h) | 42 | 92.55% ±34.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=7d) | 160 | 96.26% ±17.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil) | 168 | 94.12% ±17.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tranquil?window=all) | 168 | 94.12% ±17.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $51.70 103 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $42.99 85.97 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 17.5% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $29.36 58.71 coins | 13.6% | 11 | 6.7 | 1.64× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 12.3% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.17 28.33 coins | 8.2% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.02 20.04 coins | 11.6% | 14 | 16.8 | 0.83× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.54 15.08 coins | 8.7% | 18 | 16.8 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.07 14.13 coins | 8.2% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 50.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 8.8% | 83 | 84.0 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tranquil) [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $21.29 42.58 coins 2.22x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $10.02 20.04 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $7.07 14.13 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) [chakhna](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chakhna) $9.59 19.17 coins $10.02 20.04 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $21.29 42.58 coins 2.22x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) Hidden $9.59 19.17 coins $37.64 75.28 coins 3.93x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.59 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 25.0% restricted 1.0% covert 74.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt