--- title: "Treasure Hunt case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Treasure Hunt ($2,809.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 126.68% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt rendered: 2026-11-11T17:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Treasure Hunt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Treasure Hunt A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=all) Price · $2,809.35 · 5,619 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,528.42 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 126.68% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 11.0% 126.5% 242.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=7d) | 20 | 126.68% ±114.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt) | 20 | 126.68% ±114.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/treasure-hunt?window=all) | 20 | 126.68% ±114.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3,134 6,269 coins | 18.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3,126 6,252 coins | 18.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,241 2,481 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 10.0% | $1,227 2,453 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,129 2,258 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,089 2,177 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 13.0% | $247 493 coins | 1.3% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 14.6% | $244 488 coins | 1.4% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $52.4K 104,780 coins 18.65x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $2,809 5,619 coins $3,134 6,269 coins 1.12x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $3,134 6,269 coins 1.12x 2026-11-05 09:03 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $3,126 6,252 coins 1.11x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,241 2,481 coins 0.44x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,227 2,453 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $2,809 5,619 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 0.40x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 09:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 0.40x 2026-11-05 09:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,089 2,177 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=treasure-hunt) [★ Karambit | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,089 2,177 coins 0.39x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $1,227 2,453 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $244 488 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $2,809 5,619 coins $3,134 6,269 coins 1.12x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $52.4K 104,780 coins 18.65x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $247 493 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $244 488 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $3,126 6,252 coins 1.11x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) [pooop](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pooop) $2,809 5,619 coins $1,129 2,258 coins 0.40x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $2,809 5,619 coins $244 488 coins 0.09x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,809 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.1% legendary 1.2% remarkable 1.1% Covert 10.0% other 10.0% classified 13.0% covert knife 14.6% best hit $52.4K (18.65x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt