--- title: "Trigger case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Trigger ($124.87) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 54.76% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Trigger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Trigger A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=all) Price · $124.87 · 250 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $112.38 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 54.76% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=7d) | 60 | 61.18% ±69.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger) | 68 | 54.76% ±65.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/trigger?window=all) | 68 | 54.76% ±65.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 35.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,151 2,301 coins | 20.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $809 1,619 coins | 14.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.21× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $455 910 coins | 12.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $393 786 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $40.01 80.02 coins | 1.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $25.41 50.82 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 23.0% | $15.02 30.03 coins | 3.1% | 24 | 15.6 | 1.53× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.53 5.06 coins | 0.6% | 14 | 17.0 | 0.82× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 0.1% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $125 250 coins $1,151 2,301 coins 9.21x 2026-11-05 02:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) [COCOAAA](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/COCOAAA) $125 250 coins $809 1,619 coins 6.48x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $809 1,619 coins 6.48x 2026-11-05 11:18 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $809 1,619 coins 6.48x 2026-11-05 11:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=trigger) [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) Hidden $125 250 coins $15.02 30.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $125 250 coins $15.02 30.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 16:22 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $455 910 coins 3.64x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $25.41 50.82 coins 0.20x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) Hidden $125 250 coins $15.02 30.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) Hidden $125 250 coins $40.01 80.02 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $125 250 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% Covert 5.0% classified 5.0% industrial 5.0% restricted 28.0% mil spec 25.0% blue 30.0% best hit $1,151 (9.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt