--- title: "Troll Crate case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Troll Crate ($24.78) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 76.51% over 103 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Troll Crate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Troll Crate A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=all) Price · $24.78 · 49.55 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $22.29 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.51% · 103 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 81 openings · below min 30 days · 76.51% ±41.36 103 openings since tracking started · 76.51% ±41.36 103 openings 34.5% 82.8% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=7d) | 81 | 83.75% ±46.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate) | 103 | 76.51% ±41.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/troll-crate?window=all) | 103 | 76.51% ±41.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 103 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $261 522 coins | 11.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $198 396 coins | 13.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $192 385 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $190 379 coins | 12.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $179 357 coins | 12.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $101 201 coins | 13.6% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $52.31 105 coins | 9.4% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.26 46.51 coins | 5.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 4.0% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.78× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.75 25.5 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 5.2 | 0.19× | | [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.01 20.02 coins | 2.2% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 66.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 74 | 68.0 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=troll-crate) [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $23.26 46.51 coins 0.94x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [Nova | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $10.01 20.02 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) [DANILYS](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DANILYS) $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:06 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $52.31 105 coins 2.11x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $24.78 49.55 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.78 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 11.0% covert knife 3.0% covert 10.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% industrial 5.0% consumer 66.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt