--- title: "Tropic Gems case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tropic Gems ($134.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 239.04% over 10 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems rendered: 2026-11-11T18:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tropic Gems](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tropic Gems A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=all) Price · $134.43 · 269 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $120.99 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 239.04% · 10 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 10 openings · below min since tracking started · 10 openings · below min 89.5% 222.5% 355.5% **Small sample.** 10 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=7d) | 10 | 239.04% ±115.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems) | 10 | 239.04% ±115.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-gems?window=all) | 10 | 239.04% ±115.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,935 3,870 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,816 3,632 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,581 3,163 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 273 | $1,353 2,706 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $1,062 2,124 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 182 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $873 1,745 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $860 1,721 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $809 1,618 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $525 1,050 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 50 | $506 1,012 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $323 645 coins | 10.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 25 | $311 622 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $276 552 coins | 11.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $257 515 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 73.2% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $134 269 coins $1,816 3,632 coins 13.51x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $134 269 coins $873 1,745 coins 6.49x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $134 269 coins $525 1,050 coins 3.90x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tropic-gems) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $134 269 coins $525 1,050 coins 3.90x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $134 269 coins $1,816 3,632 coins 13.51x 2026-11-10 16:29 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $134 269 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [fordtransit](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/fordtransit) $134 269 coins $873 1,745 coins 6.49x 2026-11-08 13:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $134 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.9% rare 0.4% gold 0.5% Covert 1.0% covert knife 1.0% epic 2.0% sunny 4.0% #4b69ff 73.2% best hit $1,816 (13.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt