--- title: "Tropic Roost case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tropic Roost ($18.37) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.19% over 969 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost rendered: 2026-11-11T18:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tropic Roost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tropic Roost A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=all) Price · $18.37 · 36.74 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $16.53 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.19% · 969 openings, odds method Variance · 42.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 113.21% ±46.43 765 openings 30 days · 93.19% ±41.26 969 openings since tracking started · 93.19% ±41.26 969 openings 51.5% 523.0% 994.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=24h) | 9 | 565.68% ±428.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=7d) | 765 | 113.21% ±46.4 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost) | 969 | 93.19% ±41.3 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tropic-roost?window=all) | 969 | 93.19% ±41.3 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 969 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,792 5,584 coins | 8.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 8.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,178 2,355 coins | 10.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $935 1,870 coins | 14.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $755 1,509 coins | 11.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $678 1,357 coins | 14.4% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.06× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $401 803 coins | 12.1% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $250 500 coins | 20.4% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 97.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 939 | 939.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $1,383 2,766 coins 75.30x 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $1,178 2,355 coins 64.11x 2026-11-06 12:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.37 36.74 coins $935 1,870 coins 50.91x 2026-11-10 20:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $935 1,870 coins 50.91x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $935 1,870 coins 50.91x 2026-11-06 20:01 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [ghost15](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/ghost15) $18.37 36.74 coins $755 1,509 coins 41.07x 2026-11-09 22:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $755 1,509 coins 41.07x 2026-11-09 20:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $755 1,509 coins 41.07x 2026-11-05 15:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $678 1,357 coins 36.93x 2026-11-10 00:33 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $678 1,357 coins 36.93x 2026-11-09 20:03 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tropic-roost) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $18.37 36.74 coins $935 1,870 coins 50.91x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $18.37 36.74 coins $250 500 coins 13.61x 2026-11-10 14:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.37 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% Covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% industrial 1.4% consumer 97.0% best hit $1,383 (75.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt