--- title: "Tsunami case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Tsunami ($983.26) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 119.00% over 424 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Tsunami](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Tsunami A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=all) Price · $983.26 · 1,967 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $884.93 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 119.00% · 424 openings, odds method Variance · 18.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 119.00% ±41.14 424 openings 30 days · 119.00% ±41.14 424 openings since tracking started · 119.00% ±41.14 424 openings -0.5% 99.8% 200.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=24h) | 24 | 26.33% ±172.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=7d) | 424 | 119.00% ±41.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami) | 424 | 119.00% ±41.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/tsunami?window=all) | 424 | 119.00% ±41.1 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 424 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $112K 223,312 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,250 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,250 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 6.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $9,356 18,711 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $8,862 17,724 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $8,347 16,693 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 42.0% | $1,036 2,071 coins | 49.1% | 171 | 178.1 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 27.3% | $0.06 0.11 coins | 0.0% | 120 | 115.8 | 1.04× | | [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) | 28.2% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.0% | 125 | 119.8 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $112K 223,312 coins 113.6x 2026-11-08 21:34 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 74.78x 2026-11-07 03:12 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 74.78x 2026-11-05 11:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $18.7K 37,392 coins 19.01x 2026-11-07 10:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 15.31x 2026-11-07 10:21 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $9,356 18,711 coins 9.52x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $8,862 17,724 coins 9.01x 2026-11-07 10:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $8,347 16,693 coins 8.49x 2026-11-07 06:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=tsunami) [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 1.05x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $983 1,967 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $983 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 43.5% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 0.6% mil spec 55.5% best hit $112K (113.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt