--- title: "Turning Tops case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Turning Tops ($0.69) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.55% from 12 items with odds, observed 86.88% over 1,965 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops rendered: 2026-11-11T18:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Turning Tops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Turning Tops A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=all) Price · $0.69 · 1.37 coins Advertised RTP · 89.55% · EV $0.61 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.88% · 1,965 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.41% ±26.39 222 openings 7 days · 90.09% ±10.76 1,336 openings 30 days · 86.88% ±8.87 1,965 openings since tracking started · 86.88% ±8.87 1,965 openings 42.5% 72.0% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=24h) | 222 | 69.41% ±26.4 | −1.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=7d) | 1,336 | 90.09% ±10.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops) | 1,965 | 86.88% ±8.87 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/turning-tops?window=all) | 1,965 | 86.88% ±8.87 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,967 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.63 11.25 coins | 18.3% | 41 | 39.3 | 1.04× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 17.9% | 25 | 39.3 | 0.64× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 15.6% | 45 | 39.3 | 1.14× | | [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.71 5.41 coins | 17.6% | 74 | 78.7 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.79 3.57 coins | 14.6% | 122 | 98.4 | 1.24× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.53 3.05 coins | 12.4% | 86 | 98.4 | 0.87× | | [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.06 0.12 coins | 1.1% | 208 | 216.4 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.06 0.11 coins | 1.0% | 230 | 216.4 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 0.6% | 233 | 216.4 | 1.08× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.4% | 191 | 216.4 | 0.88× | | [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.2% | 227 | 216.4 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 485 | 491.8 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=turning-tops) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 2.23x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Negev | Boroque Sand (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-factory-new) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 3.95x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) [Cr44nk](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Cr44nk) $0.69 1.37 coins $0.06 0.12 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.69 1.37 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.69 | 89.55% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 4.0% covert 7.0% Consumer Grade 4.0% restricted 5.0% #87c7ff 11.0% mil spec 11.0% consumer 22.0% milspec 11.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.55 on average: an expected loss of $10.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt