--- title: "Twilight Gamma case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Twilight Gamma ($32.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 171.55% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma rendered: 2026-11-11T18:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Twilight Gamma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Twilight Gamma A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=all) Price · $32.73 · 65.46 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $29.45 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 171.55% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 87.0% 247.0% 407.0% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=7d) | 14 | 267.95% ±138.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma) | 38 | 171.55% ±83.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/twilight-gamma?window=all) | 38 | 171.55% ±83.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,502 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 813 | $675 1,351 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 601 | $544 1,088 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 529 | $499 998 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 431 | $466 933 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 220 | $367 733 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $326 653 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $314 628 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $257 514 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $226 451 coins | 7.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $220 440 coins | 8.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 57 | $170 340 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $131 261 coins | 10.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $107 215 coins | 10.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 17 | $44.32 88.63 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 81.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 27 | 30.9 | 0.87× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=twilight-gamma) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 16:42 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 16:42 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 16:42 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins $466 933 coins 14.25x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $32.73 65.46 coins $107 215 coins 3.28x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.73 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.4% #EB4B4B 0.2% #ffd700 1.0% red 0.2% gold 0.7% sunny 0.7% covert knife 3.4% Immortal 3.0% #4b69ff 81.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt