--- title: "Ultima STARTING 2 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ultima STARTING 2 ($1.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 107.54% over 3,599 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Ultima STARTING 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Ultima STARTING 2 A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=all) Price · $1.05 · 2.09 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 107.54% · 3,599 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 180 openings · below min 7 days · 107.54% ±53.34 3,599 openings 30 days · 107.54% ±53.34 3,599 openings since tracking started · 107.54% ±53.34 3,599 openings -0.5% 248.8% 498.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=24h) | 180 | 168.42% ±329.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=7d) | 3,599 | 107.54% ±53.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2) | 3,599 | 107.54% ±53.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/ultima-starting-2?window=all) | 3,599 | 107.54% ±53.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-11 00:03 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-10 17:10 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:23 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:20 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:17 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-09 16:12 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $150 300 coins 143.5x 2026-11-09 16:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=ultima-starting-2) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins $316 632 coins 302.3x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [kinypulse](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kinypulse) $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $1.05 2.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $316 (302.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 107.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $107.54 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt